D&D 5E: WotC's Attempt at Winning the Lottery?

Yesterday, Examiner published Michael Tresca's interview with Mike Mearls, who appears to be leading the development of Dungeons and Dragons 5E or D&D Next.  You can read the full interview here: Interview with Mike Mearls, 5th Edition Dungeons & Dragons team leader.  My conclusion is that WotC is really putting all their eggs in the "modularity" basket.  However, now I am wondering whether the modularity approach is intended to re-energize the hobby or just produce a windfall for WotC.

Mike Mearls (MM): We're looking at 2012 as our chance to cover all the bases that 4e fans want detailed.  Last year, we started by soliciting feedback on classes and tiers that needed more support, so you'll start seeing such material roll out in coming months.

I figured that if in 2011 WotC asked for feedback for products to be published in 2012, and in 2012 they're opening D&D Next for public beta testing, then they must be looking to release D&D Next on 2013.  So then, why finish polishing off 4E if you will dedicate all your efforts to 5E?  The only answer can be "modularity".

If WotC's modularity is successful, all the work being done in polishing 4E this year is also work being done in polishing 5E for 2013.  The reasoning being that all the material rolling out in coming months will make it to 5E as modules or supplements to the core 5E rules.  This is actually a smart idea because it allows WotC to modify or revise this new 4E material to better fit the 5E core rules, as they foresee them in their current stage of development.  This can make for seamless integration of 4E into 5E for those that want to flavor 5E with the things they like from 4E.

MM: Wargame rules are a great example of the kinds of rules modules we’d like to look at for the next iteration of D&D. They are very useful in some campaigns, occasionally useful in others, and never touched in even more. The same thing applies to skirmish battles, or even using miniatures for the typical D&D session. Miniatures are one of those things that I’d prefer to see people using because they enjoy painting or collecting them, not because they feel that the rules require miniatures.

In the mid 80s, my group played G1 through G3 without using a single miniature.  One of the biggest complaints I hear from players in my neck of the woods nowadays is that you need minis to play 4E.  Technically speaking, you don't.  However, you do need some type of graphical representation of the encounter or you just can't take advantage of all the technical nuances of combat in 4E.  So whether you use minis, coins, poker chips, or kidney beans, the end result is the same.

Now, it appears that combat rules for minis will be an optional module, something not included in the core rules.  Something as basic to this rpg as combat will now be a module that you have to purchase separately.  To that module, add the separate purchase of your D&D flavor module, the one that will allow you to incorporate 4E, 3E, 1st AD&D, whichever, into your game and the costs start mounting.

It seems that the more WotC tries to distill the essence of what makes D&D in order to capture that essence in the core 5E rules, more of the rules that we take for granted will become optional.  In other words, additional modules for additional cash.  You don't need to stretch your imagination too much to realize what other modules will be necessary to this 5E.  What about the module that covers how to incorporate into a 4E game a player that wants to roll with a 3E fighter, with its 3E powers, feats, etc.?

In the end, one question remains: is WotC interested in reviving the D&D franchise or just trying to get as much money as possible from this IP before they finish burying it in the ground?